We are well underway at this years World Cup in South Africa and after a very slow start to the tournament, it's beginning to live up to expectations. The first round of games was a major disapointment with the exception of a few games. Most teams were extremely tentitive in their tactics and were more concerned with conceding a goal then scoring one.
One bright spot in the opening games was South Africa against Mexico. It is always fun when the home underdog gets a lead in their opening match, especially against a strong side like Mexico. After a riveting opener the following few days were full of defensive, unenterprising football.
It wasn't until Germany took the field on day three that the world saw some fantastic football. Germany manhandled a much weaker Australian side 4-0. Even though the Aussies had only ten men due to a red card, it did not matter. Australia was outclassed all game and had no response to Germany's creative runs off the ball. It was easily the best performance in the World Cup so far. However, yesterday the German team was humbled by a 1-0 loss to Serbia and group D is now wide open.
The biggest upset of the tournament came in the final opening match between Spain and Switzerland. Spain dominated possession as we anticipated but they were unable to penetrate the stingy Swiss defense. Spain was very patient with the ball, controlling the midfield nicely, but the lacked the final ball in the offensive zone. They looked far from dangerous and did not capitalize on any of the chances they did create. Switzerland on the other hand had only a few chances and they were able to bury a crucial winning goal. 1-0 the final.
The World Cup always produces overachievers and underachievers. Although it is still very early there are some players who are separating themselves from the rest and some who are not living up to the hype. One player who was praised before the start of the tournament was Lionel Messi and he has delivered for Argentina, who look like the most dangerous team after two games. Even though he has not scored a goal he has set up a few for his teammates. When he drops into an attacking midfield position and gets the ball he creates havoc for opposing teams. His ability to dribble at the defense forces team to collapse on him, leaving his teammates open on the wing or down the middle with a through ball. He has been a pleasure to watch.
The two most disappointing players for me have been Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronoldo. In England's first match Rooney was literally invisible, he did nothing positive for his team. Prior to the second game versus Algeria he shot his mouth off and said, "Against Algeria we can not be at our best and still win the game." Rooney made so many mistakes on the field from positioning to decision making, his touch to his overall effort. After his sensational domestic campaign in the English Premier League, everyone believed that this was finally the year Rooney would deliver on the world stage. How disappointed England fans must be at their team and Rooney himself.
In one of my earlier blogs I addressed Ronaldo in two ways. I gave him the praise he deserves because he is a fantastic player, but I also said it was very easy to eliminate him out of the game. If you tackle hard and deny him the ball he will eventually become disinterested in the game which is exactly what happened. He is known around the world as a prolific diver and international refs are now beginning to realize this. He is not getting all the fouls he is used to which is very refreshing. The reason that Rooney has been a bigger disappointment is that he has played two games and Ronoldo only one. If Ronoldo does not have a good game this week versus Korea DPR then Portugal will have a tough time getting out of the group stage and Ronoldo will be as big a letdown as Rooney.
The next thing that is so frustrating to watch this year is set pieces, ie. corners and free kicks. I have seen countless corner kicks and crosses sail way over the box and not even in the vicinity of another player. I understand that players deliver bad crosses from time to time but it is happening way to often for these professionals who are the best players in the world. I have also seen free kicks right outside the penalty area being smashed halfway to Botswana. Many players are complaining that this years World Cup ball the "Jabulani" is the reason for inacurate free kicks and corners. Every World Cup we hear the exact same story, the ball does not fly well and it moves to much in the air. These players are professionals and have been using this ball for weeks. After a single warm up they should have learned how the ball travels and adapt. It is incomprehensible to me how they can blame the ball, now start hitting the target!
Finally I want to address one of the bigger stories at the World Cup, the vuvuzelas. These are stadium noise makers that produce a distinctive sometimes defining sound. There has been much controversy surrounding the vuvuzelas in South Africa. As a viewer at home they do not bother me. After a while it becomes white noise and I do not even notice it. However, if I was at the stadium I think it would be quite annoying. Many people believe it adds to the atmosphere and excitement in the stadium. In a way I can sympathize, creating a good atmosphere is crucial to the excitement of the game. However, for me, the best thing about the World Cup is the songs and chants that these nations have and I love hearing them. The vuvuzels are so loud and constant that no country bothers singing their nations football songs, which to me is a major let down.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
African Talent and Dark Horse Selection
With the World Cup only days away, it's now time to take a look at the African talent and my Dark Horse pick for 2010. During every World Cup there is always a team who surprises us. In 98' it was Croatia, in 2002 it was Turkey and South Korea and in 2006 it was Ukraine. There is no doubt in my mind that this year will be the same, however, trying to predict who will become the next Cinderella story is the hardest thing to anticipate. I have a few candidates who I believe will do damage this year in Africa.
This is the first time Africa has hosted the World Cup. In the past decade African nations have made exceptional strides towards becoming serious contenders in world football. The world has been waiting for one country in Africa to become consistent enough to make a run at a World Cup title. Once an untapped resource, Africa is now producing world class players who are emerging as international superstars. Manchester United has two players from Africa, Chelsea has four and Arsenal has five. 90 percent of these players are not just on the roster but play a pivotal role in their teams success. I expect at least one out of the six African teams to do extremely well this year, but who will it be?
Although South Africa has home field advantage, I do not believe they possess the quality of players nor the experience to go far this year. They also have a very tough group which includes France, Mexico and Uruguay. I would group Algeria and Cameroon in this conversation as well.
This leaves Ghana, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast. Nigeria has a very good chance to qualify for the knockout stage, mainly due to the fact their group consists of Argentina, Greece and South Korea. Argentina will clearly win this group but the second spot is definently up for grabs. Nigeria is one of the healthiest African nations, they are not missing any key components of their squad like Ivory Coast and Ghana. If they play agressive attacking football against a Greek team, who puts eleven players behind the ball, I think they will be successful and progress to the knockout stage. If they get that far they will most likely fall to either France or Mexico. Escaping the group stage would be a great accomplishment for Nigeria.
Four years ago everyone predicted that the Ivory Coast was the African team of the future. Now that the 2010 World Cup has arrived it is now time to prove it. They had a good World Cup qualifying, winning five games and drawing one. The competition they will face in the World Cup will be much tougher than in qualifying. The Ivory Coast are in the "group of death" with Brazil, Portugal and North Korea. They will have to play at a very high level if they wish to proceed to the knockout stage. This will be difficult without their star striker, Dider Drogba. He fractured his right forearm in a friendly against Japan a couple weeks ago. There is a great deal of speculation surrounding his injury. It was initially reported that he would miss the entire World Cup. Some reports are now saying he will be back but are unsure exactly when he will play. The Ivory Coast is a talented team but they lack that killer instinct up front when Drogba is left on the sidelines. I believe that the success of the Ivory Coast in this years tournament rest solely on the shoulders of Drogba. If he plays well or even wins the golden boot, the Ivory Coast will make a deep run. However, if his injury holds him back and he cannot produce on the pitch, it will be a disappointing year for them.
In my eyes, Ghana is the African team of the future, not the Ivory Coast. Ghana's dedication to youth development is already producing results. Last year in Egypt, Ghana won the U-20 Fifa Wolrd Cup, defeating the Brazialian powerhouse in the final. Many of those players are not ready or developed enough to be part of this years national team but the future looks very bright for football in Ghana.
Much like the Ivory Coast, Ghana will be missing a key player in South Africa. Chelsea midfielder, Michael Essien will not play this year due to a torn meniscus disc in his left knee which has plagued him all season. This injury might not be disastrous for Ghana's chances. Filling in for Essien is twenty year old Ayew, the captain of the U-20 national team. This is a chance for Ayew to step up and prove he can play with the best in the world. It is a lot of pressure for a young kid to bear but it is also an unbelievable opportunity to raise his stock value for the future. If Ayew can handle the pressure and his U-20 teammate Adiyiah can score some timely goals, I believe that Ghana has a chance to outrun it's competition and advance to the round of sixteen.
Predictions
Nigeria: Second round exit.
Ivory Coast - Quarter-finals (With Drogba). Second round exit. (Without Drogba)
Ghana - Second round exit.
DARK HORSE SELECTION - Paraguay
Paraguay was in the most difficult group during World Cup qualifying. Their group included teams such as: Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Uruguay, Ecuador, Columbia and Venezuela. Paraguay was not very good on the road with a record of 2-4-3. They gave up twelve goals against and scored only ten, a goal differential of -2. However, at home they were 7-2-0 which included wins against Brazil and Argentina. Paraguay scored thirteen goals while surrendering only five, a goal differential of +8. It is clear from these stats that Paraguay is completely different team at home and on the road. At home they were giant killers whereas on the road they had trouble against teams like Bolivia and Peru. South Africa might be a good place for Paraguay to play because no team in their group is from Africa and no team will have any substantial crowd support. If Paraguay can play as well on neutral territory as they do at home, Paraguay has a good chance to surprise a lot of spectators in 2010.
Many players on the Paraguay side play for good teams in Europe and around the world, but they lack the star power of other nations. Therefore Paraguay must rely on team chemistry rather than outstanding individual performances. This is the teams fourth consecutive World Cup appearance, so don't be surprised if they overcome opening game nerves and defeat Italy, the defending World Cup champions.
Prediction - Quarter-finals.
This is the first time Africa has hosted the World Cup. In the past decade African nations have made exceptional strides towards becoming serious contenders in world football. The world has been waiting for one country in Africa to become consistent enough to make a run at a World Cup title. Once an untapped resource, Africa is now producing world class players who are emerging as international superstars. Manchester United has two players from Africa, Chelsea has four and Arsenal has five. 90 percent of these players are not just on the roster but play a pivotal role in their teams success. I expect at least one out of the six African teams to do extremely well this year, but who will it be?
Although South Africa has home field advantage, I do not believe they possess the quality of players nor the experience to go far this year. They also have a very tough group which includes France, Mexico and Uruguay. I would group Algeria and Cameroon in this conversation as well.
This leaves Ghana, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast. Nigeria has a very good chance to qualify for the knockout stage, mainly due to the fact their group consists of Argentina, Greece and South Korea. Argentina will clearly win this group but the second spot is definently up for grabs. Nigeria is one of the healthiest African nations, they are not missing any key components of their squad like Ivory Coast and Ghana. If they play agressive attacking football against a Greek team, who puts eleven players behind the ball, I think they will be successful and progress to the knockout stage. If they get that far they will most likely fall to either France or Mexico. Escaping the group stage would be a great accomplishment for Nigeria.
Four years ago everyone predicted that the Ivory Coast was the African team of the future. Now that the 2010 World Cup has arrived it is now time to prove it. They had a good World Cup qualifying, winning five games and drawing one. The competition they will face in the World Cup will be much tougher than in qualifying. The Ivory Coast are in the "group of death" with Brazil, Portugal and North Korea. They will have to play at a very high level if they wish to proceed to the knockout stage. This will be difficult without their star striker, Dider Drogba. He fractured his right forearm in a friendly against Japan a couple weeks ago. There is a great deal of speculation surrounding his injury. It was initially reported that he would miss the entire World Cup. Some reports are now saying he will be back but are unsure exactly when he will play. The Ivory Coast is a talented team but they lack that killer instinct up front when Drogba is left on the sidelines. I believe that the success of the Ivory Coast in this years tournament rest solely on the shoulders of Drogba. If he plays well or even wins the golden boot, the Ivory Coast will make a deep run. However, if his injury holds him back and he cannot produce on the pitch, it will be a disappointing year for them.
In my eyes, Ghana is the African team of the future, not the Ivory Coast. Ghana's dedication to youth development is already producing results. Last year in Egypt, Ghana won the U-20 Fifa Wolrd Cup, defeating the Brazialian powerhouse in the final. Many of those players are not ready or developed enough to be part of this years national team but the future looks very bright for football in Ghana.
Much like the Ivory Coast, Ghana will be missing a key player in South Africa. Chelsea midfielder, Michael Essien will not play this year due to a torn meniscus disc in his left knee which has plagued him all season. This injury might not be disastrous for Ghana's chances. Filling in for Essien is twenty year old Ayew, the captain of the U-20 national team. This is a chance for Ayew to step up and prove he can play with the best in the world. It is a lot of pressure for a young kid to bear but it is also an unbelievable opportunity to raise his stock value for the future. If Ayew can handle the pressure and his U-20 teammate Adiyiah can score some timely goals, I believe that Ghana has a chance to outrun it's competition and advance to the round of sixteen.
Predictions
Nigeria: Second round exit.
Ivory Coast - Quarter-finals (With Drogba). Second round exit. (Without Drogba)
Ghana - Second round exit.
DARK HORSE SELECTION - Paraguay
Paraguay was in the most difficult group during World Cup qualifying. Their group included teams such as: Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Uruguay, Ecuador, Columbia and Venezuela. Paraguay was not very good on the road with a record of 2-4-3. They gave up twelve goals against and scored only ten, a goal differential of -2. However, at home they were 7-2-0 which included wins against Brazil and Argentina. Paraguay scored thirteen goals while surrendering only five, a goal differential of +8. It is clear from these stats that Paraguay is completely different team at home and on the road. At home they were giant killers whereas on the road they had trouble against teams like Bolivia and Peru. South Africa might be a good place for Paraguay to play because no team in their group is from Africa and no team will have any substantial crowd support. If Paraguay can play as well on neutral territory as they do at home, Paraguay has a good chance to surprise a lot of spectators in 2010.
Many players on the Paraguay side play for good teams in Europe and around the world, but they lack the star power of other nations. Therefore Paraguay must rely on team chemistry rather than outstanding individual performances. This is the teams fourth consecutive World Cup appearance, so don't be surprised if they overcome opening game nerves and defeat Italy, the defending World Cup champions.
Prediction - Quarter-finals.
Monday, June 7, 2010
The Best of the Rest
Now that the most powerful teams in the world have been analyzed, it's now time to preview the best of the of the rest. This post will take a brief look at: England's chances to win for the first time since 1966, Spain's continuation of superb football, Netherlands chances to return to glory and also the disappointing sides of U.S.A and Portugal.
ENGLAND
Consistency is not usually a term that is used to describe English football. However, this year that's exactly what they have been. After failing to qualify for Euro 2008 it seems like England is out to prove they are an elite team. England suffered only one loss in ten qualifying games, while posting thirty-four goals for and only six against. Very impressive. They have all the talent needed to win the World Cup, but England always seem to loose their composure when it matters most.
This year England have been distracted by negative headlines in the press. John Terry, England's former captain, was stripped of his title when he had an affair with a teammates (Wayne Bridge) ex-girlfriend. The captains band was given to Rio Ferdinand, a beast at center back, but he has suffered a knee injury and will not play in South Africa. The captains band is now in the hands of Steven Gerard, which in my opinion is where it should have been in the first place. Even with all these distractions they have been able to win.
I have been a huge critic of Wanye Rooney in the past, but this year I was silenced. Rooney was voted player of the year in the EPL by his peers this season. He scored twenty-six goals in thirty-two league games while preforming at a elite level domestically and in the Champions League. Partnered with Defoe up front, England has a deadly attack. With Gerrard and Lampard controlling the middle, John Terry at the back and players like Joe Cole, Walcott and Wright-Phillips along the flanks, I think England has the total package this year to go all the way. As long as they stay focused, disciplined (no red cards) and healthy, they will be meeting Brazil in the 2010 World Cup Final.
Strengths - Coaching, Elite players in all positions, Consistent football
Weaknesses - Pressure, Composure, Injuries
Prediction - Champions
SPAIN
Many people have predicted Spain to win the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Coming off an impressive 2008 European Championship victory, there is a reason they are one of the favorites. The only teams that compares to Spain's high profile roster is England and Brazil. Fernando Torres and David Villa are the best striking duo in the world and they proved that in Switzerland in 2008. Torres has had injury problems this season and his fitness is a concern. If he can stay healthy it gives Spain a much better chance to repeat their success in 2008. However, only one time in history has a team won the European cup and followed it with a World Cup victory, Germany in '72 - '74.
Spain has the best central midfield in the world. Xavi and Andres Iniesta are teammates at FC Barcelona. Their chemistry is excellent and they are two of the best passers in the game. Their ability to hold possession makes it difficult for the opposition to remain in position on defense. They are so patient on the ball they hypnotize their opponents with their passing, waiting for the precise moment to exploit any breakdown in the defense.
I believe that Spain has a great chance to win the World Cup. The only reason I have them going out in the quarter-finals is that they will most likely face Brazil. Brazil is the only team in the tournament that has the ability to shut down Spain's attack. If Spain did not have to play Brazil I would have selected them to win the whole thing. Suffering only one loss since November 2006, Spain is a great choice.
Strengths - Forwards, Possession, Goalkeeping, Consistency
Weaknesses - Schedule, Health
Prediction - Quarter-Finals
NETHERLANDS
For years the Netherlands have been trying to return to world class status in football. In the 1970's the Netherlands were one of the most feared teams in the world. They went to two consecutive World Cup finals in 1974 and 1978, loosing both times to Germany and Argentina. Talent has never been a problem with the Dutch side, they produce quality players in quantity. So why have they failed to perform on the world stage? I believe they are much similar to England in this respect. They have a tendency to self-destruct. The only team holding Holland back is themselves. With a disappointing round of sixteen exit four years ago, I believe Holland will surprise everyone this year.
The key to success for Holland is their flanks. Arjen Robben has been one of my favorite players for a long time. Many people are unfamiliar with Robben, but this year at Bayren Munich he led the team to a Champions League final. He has the ability to beat multiple players one on one and is a clinical finisher. If Van der Vaart and Sneijder can dominate the central midfield while playing accurate balls to Robben and Dirk Kuyt going forward, I see a semi-final appearance in Holland's future.
The X-factor for the Dutch are their fans. They are some of the most passionate and noisy fans on the planet. It is a long way to travel, but if those fans in bright orange show up in droves, look for that to have a positive effect on the team.
Strengths - Flanks, One v One skills, Momentum
Weaknesses - Under-achievers, Tough Group
Prediction - Semi-Finals
UNITED STATES
Expectations are very high for the United States. After being eliminated in the first round four years ago, the States are determined to make themselves a contender in 2010. Since the States upset Spain in last years Confederations Cup, they believe that they are ready to take on the world's best. Unfortunately I have some bad news, they are not. The States beating Spain was one of those upsets that happens every now and then. Just because you defeat an elite team once does not make you one. I do not think the States are a bad side, they are making tremendous progress as a developing football nation. However, they do not have the talent that Spain, Brazil, England or a number of other teams have.
Jozy Altidore is an emerging star striker for the United States. He currently plays for Villarreal in Spain and is showing real promise. Altidore has suffered an ankle injury but is getting progressively better. He is not sure if he will be healthy enough to play England in their opening match in South Africa. He is a big part of the offense due to his young legs, speed and ability to finish. If he tries to compete against England without being 100%, there is the possibility of re-injuring his ankle due to the aggressive play of the English side.
Many players on the United States play overseas in England, Germany and Italy. Except for one or two players, none of them play for the top European teams. Some play in Mexico, Norway and in the MLS. When the US play a top rate team it will be very noticeable that there football program is still years behind. I would not be surprised if the States make it out of their group. If so they will finish second behind England and inevitably face Germany in the round of sixteen. If they make it that far they will be crushed by a superior German side.
Strenghts - Leadership, Weak Group
Weaknesses - Over-confident, Health, Second-tier talent
Prediction - First round exit
PORTUGAL
My assessment of the Portuguese team in this years World Cup is either going to make me a genius or a complete fool. To me, Portugal has been the most disappointing team is World Cup qualifying, they barely squeaked into the tournament. In my experience it is teams that play at a high level prior to the tournament that do well, not teams that struggle. It is rare for a team to play so poorly in qualifying and completely turn around come tournament time. Portugal has a significant amount of problems that will hold them back from making it out of round play.
Injuries are the story of this years World Cup. To make a run into the tournament a team has to be fit and posses depth, Portugal has neither. Portugal's defense is a disaster. Real Madrid defender Pepe is questionable to return, Chelsea's Carvalho is expected to return but might not be 100%, and right back Bosingwa is definitely out for the entire tournament. This is a serious cause for concern.
During World Cup qualifying defending was not the problem. Portugal only allowed five goals in ten matches. It was their offense that was lacking. Out of those ten games Portugal failed to score in three of them. They had seventeen goals for, but eight of them came against Malta. Portugal had to play Bosnia-Herzegovina in a two-leg playoff game in order to gain entry to South Africa. When their World Cup berth was on the line they only managed to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 in both matches. Far from impressive.
Portugal has one of the best players in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo. His talent and ability to beat players one on one is second to none. He is a player who can be easily frustrated if you make strong tackles without fouling. If Ronaldo is not the center of attention on the field and is not given the ball often he will become lazy and apathetic. Over the years I have questioned his heart. I believe that he values his personal success over his teams. You will never win championships with an attitude like that.
If Portugal has significant injury problems with their defense while continuing to struggle offensively, I have trouble believing they will get out of their group. Portugal will be the biggest disappointment in the 2010 World Cup.
Strengths - Ronaldo (if he shows up), Speed,
Weaknesses - Grit, Injuries, Defense, Momentum
Prediction - First Round Exit
ENGLAND
Consistency is not usually a term that is used to describe English football. However, this year that's exactly what they have been. After failing to qualify for Euro 2008 it seems like England is out to prove they are an elite team. England suffered only one loss in ten qualifying games, while posting thirty-four goals for and only six against. Very impressive. They have all the talent needed to win the World Cup, but England always seem to loose their composure when it matters most.
This year England have been distracted by negative headlines in the press. John Terry, England's former captain, was stripped of his title when he had an affair with a teammates (Wayne Bridge) ex-girlfriend. The captains band was given to Rio Ferdinand, a beast at center back, but he has suffered a knee injury and will not play in South Africa. The captains band is now in the hands of Steven Gerard, which in my opinion is where it should have been in the first place. Even with all these distractions they have been able to win.
I have been a huge critic of Wanye Rooney in the past, but this year I was silenced. Rooney was voted player of the year in the EPL by his peers this season. He scored twenty-six goals in thirty-two league games while preforming at a elite level domestically and in the Champions League. Partnered with Defoe up front, England has a deadly attack. With Gerrard and Lampard controlling the middle, John Terry at the back and players like Joe Cole, Walcott and Wright-Phillips along the flanks, I think England has the total package this year to go all the way. As long as they stay focused, disciplined (no red cards) and healthy, they will be meeting Brazil in the 2010 World Cup Final.
Strengths - Coaching, Elite players in all positions, Consistent football
Weaknesses - Pressure, Composure, Injuries
Prediction - Champions
SPAIN
Many people have predicted Spain to win the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Coming off an impressive 2008 European Championship victory, there is a reason they are one of the favorites. The only teams that compares to Spain's high profile roster is England and Brazil. Fernando Torres and David Villa are the best striking duo in the world and they proved that in Switzerland in 2008. Torres has had injury problems this season and his fitness is a concern. If he can stay healthy it gives Spain a much better chance to repeat their success in 2008. However, only one time in history has a team won the European cup and followed it with a World Cup victory, Germany in '72 - '74.
Spain has the best central midfield in the world. Xavi and Andres Iniesta are teammates at FC Barcelona. Their chemistry is excellent and they are two of the best passers in the game. Their ability to hold possession makes it difficult for the opposition to remain in position on defense. They are so patient on the ball they hypnotize their opponents with their passing, waiting for the precise moment to exploit any breakdown in the defense.
I believe that Spain has a great chance to win the World Cup. The only reason I have them going out in the quarter-finals is that they will most likely face Brazil. Brazil is the only team in the tournament that has the ability to shut down Spain's attack. If Spain did not have to play Brazil I would have selected them to win the whole thing. Suffering only one loss since November 2006, Spain is a great choice.
Strengths - Forwards, Possession, Goalkeeping, Consistency
Weaknesses - Schedule, Health
Prediction - Quarter-Finals
NETHERLANDS
For years the Netherlands have been trying to return to world class status in football. In the 1970's the Netherlands were one of the most feared teams in the world. They went to two consecutive World Cup finals in 1974 and 1978, loosing both times to Germany and Argentina. Talent has never been a problem with the Dutch side, they produce quality players in quantity. So why have they failed to perform on the world stage? I believe they are much similar to England in this respect. They have a tendency to self-destruct. The only team holding Holland back is themselves. With a disappointing round of sixteen exit four years ago, I believe Holland will surprise everyone this year.
The key to success for Holland is their flanks. Arjen Robben has been one of my favorite players for a long time. Many people are unfamiliar with Robben, but this year at Bayren Munich he led the team to a Champions League final. He has the ability to beat multiple players one on one and is a clinical finisher. If Van der Vaart and Sneijder can dominate the central midfield while playing accurate balls to Robben and Dirk Kuyt going forward, I see a semi-final appearance in Holland's future.
The X-factor for the Dutch are their fans. They are some of the most passionate and noisy fans on the planet. It is a long way to travel, but if those fans in bright orange show up in droves, look for that to have a positive effect on the team.
Strengths - Flanks, One v One skills, Momentum
Weaknesses - Under-achievers, Tough Group
Prediction - Semi-Finals
UNITED STATES
Expectations are very high for the United States. After being eliminated in the first round four years ago, the States are determined to make themselves a contender in 2010. Since the States upset Spain in last years Confederations Cup, they believe that they are ready to take on the world's best. Unfortunately I have some bad news, they are not. The States beating Spain was one of those upsets that happens every now and then. Just because you defeat an elite team once does not make you one. I do not think the States are a bad side, they are making tremendous progress as a developing football nation. However, they do not have the talent that Spain, Brazil, England or a number of other teams have.
Jozy Altidore is an emerging star striker for the United States. He currently plays for Villarreal in Spain and is showing real promise. Altidore has suffered an ankle injury but is getting progressively better. He is not sure if he will be healthy enough to play England in their opening match in South Africa. He is a big part of the offense due to his young legs, speed and ability to finish. If he tries to compete against England without being 100%, there is the possibility of re-injuring his ankle due to the aggressive play of the English side.
Many players on the United States play overseas in England, Germany and Italy. Except for one or two players, none of them play for the top European teams. Some play in Mexico, Norway and in the MLS. When the US play a top rate team it will be very noticeable that there football program is still years behind. I would not be surprised if the States make it out of their group. If so they will finish second behind England and inevitably face Germany in the round of sixteen. If they make it that far they will be crushed by a superior German side.
Strenghts - Leadership, Weak Group
Weaknesses - Over-confident, Health, Second-tier talent
Prediction - First round exit
PORTUGAL
My assessment of the Portuguese team in this years World Cup is either going to make me a genius or a complete fool. To me, Portugal has been the most disappointing team is World Cup qualifying, they barely squeaked into the tournament. In my experience it is teams that play at a high level prior to the tournament that do well, not teams that struggle. It is rare for a team to play so poorly in qualifying and completely turn around come tournament time. Portugal has a significant amount of problems that will hold them back from making it out of round play.
Injuries are the story of this years World Cup. To make a run into the tournament a team has to be fit and posses depth, Portugal has neither. Portugal's defense is a disaster. Real Madrid defender Pepe is questionable to return, Chelsea's Carvalho is expected to return but might not be 100%, and right back Bosingwa is definitely out for the entire tournament. This is a serious cause for concern.
During World Cup qualifying defending was not the problem. Portugal only allowed five goals in ten matches. It was their offense that was lacking. Out of those ten games Portugal failed to score in three of them. They had seventeen goals for, but eight of them came against Malta. Portugal had to play Bosnia-Herzegovina in a two-leg playoff game in order to gain entry to South Africa. When their World Cup berth was on the line they only managed to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 in both matches. Far from impressive.
Portugal has one of the best players in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo. His talent and ability to beat players one on one is second to none. He is a player who can be easily frustrated if you make strong tackles without fouling. If Ronaldo is not the center of attention on the field and is not given the ball often he will become lazy and apathetic. Over the years I have questioned his heart. I believe that he values his personal success over his teams. You will never win championships with an attitude like that.
If Portugal has significant injury problems with their defense while continuing to struggle offensively, I have trouble believing they will get out of their group. Portugal will be the biggest disappointment in the 2010 World Cup.
Strengths - Ronaldo (if he shows up), Speed,
Weaknesses - Grit, Injuries, Defense, Momentum
Prediction - First Round Exit
Sunday, June 6, 2010
The Ferocious Four
Argentina, Brazil, Italy and Germany are the four most decorated footballing nations in the world, each with a history embedded in their culture. Since 1930 there have been eighteen World Cup tournaments and there has never been a final that did not include one of the teams above. These four powerhouse nations have won fourteen of the previous eighteen tournaments so selecting any of them as your champions in 2010 is a safe choice. However, it is debated which of these teams is better equipped to make a deep run into the tournament. All four teams have very high expectations and anything less than being crowned champion would be considered a failure by the players and the country. I will break down each team by analyzing players, coaches and qualifying matches as well as my predictions for how each team will fare in the ruthless month long battle.
The greatest assest that the Argentinian team has is that they are blessed with the most dangerous and talented man in football, Lionel Messi. In 2009, with an electric performance, he won Fifa World player of the year while leading his club FC Barcelona to a UEFA champions league title. As we have seen in the past, success in club football does not always translate to success in the World Cup. Maradona, who as a footballer achieved divine status in Argentina, has now taken over the position as head coach of the national team. In response to questions concerning the ability of Lionel Messi he told reporters, "I have seen the player who will inherit my place in Argentine football and his name is Messi. Messi is a genius and he can become an even better player than me." At just 22 years old, Messi has the expectations of a hopeful nation resting solely on his shoulders. Will he be able to have the composure to lead his team to their first World Cup title since 1986?
During World Cup qualifying Argentina struggled and almost failed to make it to South Africa. They finished fourth in their group behind Brazil, Chile and Paraguay. During their campaign they suffered a 2-0 loss to Ecuador, 2-1 loss to Columbia and an astonishing 6-1 loss to Bolivia. Midway through qualifying, Alito Basile who was the manager of the team was replaced by Diego Maradona. Maradona's coaching resume is far from impressive and history tells us that great players do not always translate into great coaches. Two of the most celebrated men in Argentina must be able to work well together or the squad will not go as far as they anticipate.
Strengths - Lionel Messi, Depth in Attack, Speed and Pace
Weaknesses - Unproven coach, Experience, Confidence (weak qualifying round)
Prediction - Semi-Finals
Brazil is arguably the most talented team in this year's tournament. They have so many gifted players to recruit that creating a roster of only twenty-three can be challenging. It is their depth that makes them so dangerous. Teams with depth usually do well in this kind of lengthy tournament, regarless of the sport. When teams rely on one or two players, successes and failures of the team are dictated by the performance of those individual players. The more balanced, all around teams are able to draw good performances from a greater number of sources, thus increasing their chances for success. Ronaldinho and Adriano were both left of the 2010 World Cup roster. This is a reflection of the strength of the Brazilians. Any other team would have found a spot for these offensive players, especially Ronaldinho who won Fifa world player of the year in 2005 and 2006.
The strength of the roster is not the only reason why Ronaldinho and Adriano were left at home. Brazils manager, Dunga, wanted to revamp the teams approach to football. In years past Brazil has become senonymous with beautiful, creative offensive football. At the same time they have been critisized for being too flashy and too fancy. Dunga is one of those critics. He has changed Brazil whole approach to the game. It is no longer sexy offense that Dunga demands from his players but rather stiff, gritty, stingy defense. Leaving players like Ronaldinho and Adriano off the roster is a reflection of this new style.
Brazil did not have an easy qualifying group. They were in a group with Chile, Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia. However, they were able to finish top of the table with only two losses and eleven goals against in eighteen total games.
Although defense is a priority for Brazil, they still have many players who can put the ball in the net. Robinho and Kaka will lead the offense for Brazil. Both players are fast and have a great ability to beat players one on one. Look for Brazil to keep very disciplined on defense while capitalizing against the opposition with a lightening quick counter-attack. Brazil will have no problem winning their group and with their long bench they will make a deep run into the tournament.
Strengths - Depth, Two-way fullbacks, Balanced football
Weaknesses - Inexperienced Midfield (5 of 7 new), New system
Prediction - Final
The only place for Italy to go is down. Returning to South Africa as defending World Cup champions, expectations could not be higher. The unfortunate thing about Italy is that they cannot improve on their performance from four years ago. Italy has retained the core talent from their 2006 World Cup roster, keeping nine players, while excluding infamous Italian players such as Inzaghi, Del Piero and Toti.
On paper, Italy looks strong, especially if you consider they went undefeated in ten World Cup qualifying games. From a distance this might look impressive, but upon further analysis you can see that Italy had an easy road to South Africa. Their qualifying group consisted of Ireland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Montenegro and Georgia, not exactly top tier competition. In ten games Italy's largest margin of victory was only two goals. They beat Montenegro 2-1 and 2-0 while almost suffering a loss to Cyprus on two occasions, 2-1 and 3-2. These are less than concinving wins against sub-par teams. Ireland was Italy's only opposition in the group and they tied in both matches. To me, Italy's qualifying run was hollow and I believe have developed a false sense of confidence. What happens when Italy has to play a few competitive matches?
The next big question facing Azzurri nation is the age of Italy's roster. Many players from the 2006 championship team remain, people such as: Pirlo, Buffon, Cannavaro and Gattuso. However, all of these players are over thirty years old. Experience is a huge benifit in a pressure-filled competition as big as the World Cup. On the other hand Italy runs the risk of leaving a less-skilled, experienced player on the pitch instead of starting a young talent. The best teams are those who can strike a balance between young talent and experienced players, unfortunately I believe that Italy has too much of the latter. I think that Italy will make it out of the first round, but if they have tough matches against Slovakia and Paraguay (which I predict they will), I doubt they will have enough gas left in the tank to propel them much further.
Strengths - Experience, Composure, Strong-back line
Weaknesses - Speed and Pace, Stamina, Pressure to repeat, unsubstantiated confidence
Prediction - 2nd round exit
Germany is looking to capture it's fourth World Cup title this year is South Africa. In the past seven World Cups they have one title, three runner-up finishes, one semi-final and two quarterfinal appearances. Only one time in the history of the tournament has Germany failed to make it out of the group stage.
I think Germany will repeat history again this year and safely make it out of the group stage. With Lahm at left back attacking up the flanks, Schweinstegier controlling the middle and a deep line of talented strickers, Germany has a balanced team all the way up the pitch. One of their offensive weapons is Miroslav Klose who was awarded the Golden Boot at the 2006 World Cup.
The biggest advantage for Germany is cohesivness. All twenty-three players on the roster all play in the German Bundesliga, including six players from Bayern Munich, four from Hamburg and three from Werder Bremen. Most international teams have players from domestic leagues all over the world. All the German players have played either with or against each other all season, therefore they know how to work well together and know each others strengths and weaknesses. Many World Cup teams have a few short months to gel whereas this German team is already well acquainted with each other.
Similar to Italy, Germany had a very easy qualifying group which consisted of Russia, Finland, Wales, Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein. Other than Russia there was virtually no competition for Germany. What impressed me about Germany was that they were able destroy the teams they should have destroyed. They beat Liechtenstein 6-0 and Azerbaijan 4-0. They did not play to the level of their opponent they played like an elite team which was reflected by the score. Although they beat the teams they should, Germany's lack of competition through qualifying makes me question how prepared they are to play the best teams in the world.
The most concerning aspect about Germany's trip to South Africa is they are missing 33 year old captain, Michael Ballack. Ballack injured his right ankle about a month ago in the F.A cup final versus Portsmouth. Although Ballack is getting older, there is no way to replace his leadership qualities on and off the pitch. He has been such a crucial aspect of Germany's previous success it is going to be interesting to see if any other player can step-up and fill that spot. Sometimes when you take a piece like Ballack, the central nervous system, out of the team it can have drastic effect on performance. However, I feel like the German team is deep enough to overcome Ballack's injury and clearly make it out of the group stage. German will not have the same home field advantage they had in 2006 nor will they have the same success.
Strengths - Team Chemistry, Coaching
Weaknesses - Ballack injury, Under-prepared
Prediction - Quarter-finals
Saturday, June 5, 2010
The Art of the Start
This video was shown to me recently by a friend. This should be a mandatory piece of curriculum for any business education.
Guy Kawasaki started out as a software evangelist for Macintosh during the tech boom in the late 1980's. Now he is the founding partner at Garage, a venture capitalist firm. They provide funding for new companies in the technology sector. Below I have posted a video, in four parts, of a speech he gave to future entrepreneurs. His presentation is based on the book he wrote called, 'The Art of the Start.' In the videos Guy is incredibly engaging, while providing prospective entrepreneurs with very helpful tips.
Whether you're thinking of starting a small family business or building an empire, this is a must see video!
Guy Kawasaki started out as a software evangelist for Macintosh during the tech boom in the late 1980's. Now he is the founding partner at Garage, a venture capitalist firm. They provide funding for new companies in the technology sector. Below I have posted a video, in four parts, of a speech he gave to future entrepreneurs. His presentation is based on the book he wrote called, 'The Art of the Start.' In the videos Guy is incredibly engaging, while providing prospective entrepreneurs with very helpful tips.
Whether you're thinking of starting a small family business or building an empire, this is a must see video!
Friday, June 4, 2010
2010 Fifa World Cup
Depending on what kind of person you are, this time of year can be a delight or a disaster. For some, June marks the end of a long winter, wet spring and the beginning of summer sunshine. For others, like me, it is the culmination of a long and beautiful season of sports. The NFL, NBA and NHL will all be enjoying a well deserved off-season while I am forced to watch baseball (which plays 2,384 games per evening) or NASCAR. However, every four years there is a breath of fresh air for summer sports fans. The Fifa World Cup is the most watched sporting event in the world and will be broadcast live to over 200 countries world wide. There will be 64 games played in only 32 days, which should be more than enough to fill even the most glutenous sports fan.
The Fifa World Cup will attract most of my attention this month and as a precursor to the event I will be analyzing stats, giving advice and predicting outcomes all week. I will focus on the ferocious four (Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Italy), teams to watch and my dark horse picks. So if your in an office pool, betting with friends or simply a fan of the game, stay tuned for more!
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